Archive for September, 2014

The Never-Ending Puzzle of Projecting Home Price Appreciation

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John Burns's picture

by John Burns

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Student Loans Will Cost the Industry $83 Billion this Year

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Rick Palacios Jr.'s picture

by Rick Palacios Jr. and Ali Wolf

8% fewer homes will transact than normal in 2014, purely due to student debt.

This week, our clients received a 30-page paper that assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Our conclusion is that 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that is $83 billion per year in lost volume.

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC

The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.

At a high level, the math is as follows:

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